Horse Betting Online

Knowing how to calculate returns from your horse betting online bets can be very useful, especially if you can’t access your PC for some reason and can’t therefore check your return with your chosen bookmaker. All you need to calculate racing returns are a pocket calculator, the betting odds of your winners and the size of your stake (which we assume you will have no problem remembering).

The calculation required to find out how much any given horse racing bet has returned is slightly different for fractional odds and decimal odds. Both versions will therefore be provided so that you can get the job done either way.

Fractional Odds
If you only know the fractional odds of your winner then the first thing you will need to do is convert fractional odds to decimal and then add 1 point to represent your stake. The formula for doing this is:

(L / R) + 1

In other words, take the left hand side of the odds, divide by the right hand side of the odds and then add 1.

For example, if the odds of your winner were 15/8, your calculation would be 15 divided by 8, which would give you 1.875, and then add 1, giving you 2.875.

At this point you can calculate your return by multiplying the figure you have just identified by your stake. So, if you had bet £20 on the 15/8 winner, your total return would be 20 x 2.875 = £57.50, which means you would have made a profit of £37.50.

Decimal Odds
If you know the decimal odds that already include 1 point for your stake (such as the on-screen odds shown on Betfair) then no conversions are necessary. If you know the decimal odds without your stake then simply add 1 point to represent your stake.

Next, multiply your stake by the figure and the result will be your total return. £20 on a 3.50 winner (which is a 5/2 winner) would therefore give you a return of £70, which means you would have made a £50 profit.

Winning Accumulators
If you ever bet on a winning accumulator then calculating your returns is just as easy. First, convert all fractional odds into decimal and add 1 point. Then multiply the resulting figures together. When you have done that, multiply by your stake.

For example, if you have a £20 winning treble where the odds were 2/1, 3/1 and 5/1, you would convert these and get figures of 3.00, 4.00 and 6.00. Multiply these together to get 72 and then multiply by your £20 to get £1,440. Your profit here would therefore be £1,420, which would make it a pretty good treble!

It is often said that the majority of people who bet on horses lose money, but although that is probably true, it doesn’t have to be the case. There are plenty of people who win money week after week from their horse betting online activities, and these successful bettors aren’t any more talented, skilful or lucky than the average – they just do things differently!

In previous posts we have discussed some of the main things that successful bettors do differently. For example, they pick horses according to previous racing form, they adhere to sound money management principles and they shop around for the very best odds available. What we haven’t yet discussed is the fact that successful bettors also tend to be people who have set themselves a clear goal.

There is an old saying that if you don’t know where you are going, you won’t know how to get there, and although this is something of a cliché, it also happens to be true. So ask yourself – do you have a clear goal for what you want to achieve from your horse betting online activities? If you don’t, you need to change that situation, and you can do so by following our simple step-by-step guide to goal setting for horse betting…

1 – Decide what your main objective is from horse betting online. Do you want to focus on simply having fun and maybe making an occasional profit? Do you want to try and generate a steady part-time income from your betting? Maybe you want to try and turn a small starting bank into something bigger? Whatever the case, you need to clarify your main objective so that you can pursue it intelligently.

2 – Quantify your goal by attaching some numbers to it. For example, if you have said that you would like to generate a steady part-time income from your betting, exactly how much would you like to generate? £5 a month is a steady income, but it wouldn’t satisfy many, so be a bit more specific. If you would really like to make £100 a month, or £500 a month, then say so. By quantifying your goal you will have something concrete to work towards - and you will know when you have achieved it!

3 – Decide on a realistic time-frame for the achievement your goal. If you want to have fun then you can achieve that immediately, but if you want a part-time income of £500 a month then how long will you give yourself to achieve that goal? The key here is to make the time-frame realistic so that you don’t try and build Rome in a day. Trying to get rich quick is usually a pretty sure way to go broke, so be sensible and, if you are in any doubt, go slow!

When you have set yourself a horse betting online goal by clarifying your objective, quantifying it and giving it a realistic time frame, you can then concentrate on finding the best way to try and make it happen. The Betting Systems, Picking Winners and Money Management sections of this website will probably be very useful in that respect, but until you have a clear goal in place you’ll be sailing without a rudder, so start goal-setting for horse betting today and you will then be able to bet more effectively tomorrow!

False favourite is the term used to describe a horse that is the clear favourite in the betting market for a particular race, but doesn’t have the form to merit such a position. False favourites can be dangerous for those who participate in horse betting online, but they can also throw up some good opportunities if you know where to look for them. Let’s look at both of these aspects of false favourites so that they help rather than hinder you…

First, the potential downside: anyone who bets on favourites without giving due consideration to their previous form will lose money on a false favourite sooner or later. If you blindly bet on every favourite going, you will eventually put your money on a horse that hasn’t raced for six months or more and is only the favourite because it has been hyped up as ‘something really special’ by the trainer, jockey or racing media. The bookmakers, keen to avoid giving away money whenever possible, will automatically trim a few points off such horses ‘just to be on the safe side’ and this could well make the runner favourite.

Spotting false favourites isn’t particularly difficult. Typically they have had a long break since their last race and the odds available about them will be far lower than you would expect based on form alone. There may or may not be hype about how the horse is set to win a massive race in the future, making the current race ‘a walk in the park’ by comparison. The horse may or may not have previous winning form, but if the horse has had a long break such form can’t be relied upon for betting purposes.

If you identify a horse that you think is a false favourite, your immediate move should be to refrain from betting on that favourite. As a general rule of thumb you would do well to avoid betting on any horse that hasn’t had a run for more than 30 days, and if you adhere to that rule you will automatically avoid betting on the majority of false favourites. That said, continue to identify false favourites because you may still be able to profit from the race.

The way to make money from some races that have a false favourite installed is to look at the form of the second favourite and third favourite and see if it might be worth betting on either or those each way. The presence of the false favourite means that the odds offered for other horses in the race are likely to be more generous than they should be, so you will often be able to bet on a second or third favourite each way (or for a place only with a betting exchange like Betfair) with a high degree of confidence.

Even better, if the suspected false favourite really is false, the second or third favourite could actually win the race at exaggerated odds, giving you a very nice profit without too much hassle.

You won’t find a false favourite every day of the week by any means, and not all false favourite races give the second or third favourites a particularly good chance of winning, but if you look out for the opportunities as described previously, you could make some great horse betting online profits in a surprisingly easy manner.

Many horse betting online enthusiasts use paper trading to determine whether a horse racing system or staking strategy is as useful as they hope it will be. Paper trading involves keeping records of bets, results, profits and losses without actually betting, and is therefore a risk-free exercise. Unfortunately, it is also a profit-free exercise, and if you paper trade a particular system or strategy for several months and make a theoretical profit of £20,000, then that’s all you would have – a theoretical profit. In the real world, you wouldn’t be even one penny richer!

An alternative to paper trading for extensive periods is to move beyond paper trading after a short time and progress to micro-stakes trading. This is where you place real bets with the online bookmakers of your choice, but using minimum stakes so that your exposure to the risk of losing is still very low.

For example, you could paper trade a system for seven days and then, if the paper trading shows a profit, establish a small bankroll and start betting for real in £2 units instead of £20 units. This would give you a profit if the system continues to be profitable (as you obviously hope it will) but still keep potential losses to a minimum if you don’t pick as many winners as you had expected.

Another advantage to betting with micro-stakes instead of paper trading is that the use of real money makes you take the exercise more seriously. Many people paper trade as if they have nerves of steel, then switch to using serious stakes and discover that they lose their nerve completely because they now have some real cash on the line. Betting with micro-stakes would give such bettors a much more accurate idea about whether or not they would be prepared to follow the same system using larger real-money stakes in the future.

If you wanted yet another good reason to consider betting with micro-stakes instead of paper trading, consider the fact that online bookmakers are currently offering generous bonuses to new players. You could open an account with a new bookmaker, collect your bonus and use that money to bet with alongside your own cash. That would effectively give you more to play with from the outset, and is a much better approach than paper trading for a few months only to discover, when you want to bet for real, that the bonuses are no longer available!

Paper trading will always be a useful short-term way to ‘test the water’ with new horse betting systems or staking strategy, but theoretical profits simply aren’t useful in the real world. Going beyond paper trading as we have discussed here could help you to start making real cash profits from a successful system sooner rather than later.

Picking National Hunt winners can be made a lot easier if you combine the basic principles of picking winners with a handful of additional principles that apply specifically to the National Hunt code of horse racing. That’s because the ability to handle much longer racing distances and to jump obstacles in an effective manner has a direct influence on the chances of a horse winning.

As always, you can’t go too far wrong by focusing on horses that won their previous races. Previous wins over the course and distance are also very good indicators of future winning potential. But in addition to those basic factors (see our Simple Form Ratings System for a good way to generate simple ratings) you would do well to give additional consideration to the following:

Going – The going conditions have a big influence over the chances of a horse winning, and just because a horse previously won over good going doesn’t mean that it will run so well over soft ground. Ideally the horse should have previously performed well over similar going as it will be racing over next time. Of course, this principle also applies to flat racing, but with the longer distances of National Hunt races it is particularly important.

Winning Distances – Although it is common in flat racing for winners to claim victory by a nose or a head, in National Hunt racing an emphatic win would need to be measured in lengths. If you are considering betting on several last time out winners, you might want to give preference to the ones that won by at least a length or more. This would give the horses a chance of winning even if they race a tad less well then they did previously.

Jumping Ability – Focusing on previous winners rules out the chance of betting on a horse that failed a jump last time out, but that doesn’t automatically mean that the horse jumped particularly well. If you are thinking of placing a significant bet with an online bookmaker you would do well to check the detailed form comments at the Racing Post website to find out how the runner jumped previously. If it jumped well, go ahead and bet, but if it came close to falling you can decide whether or not it might be prudent to reduce your stake.

Add consideration of these three factors to the usual range of traits that you use to pick winners in general and the task of picking national hunt winners should prove much easier. And with the 2009/10 National Hunt season still in its infancy, you now have several months of profit-making winners to look forward to!