False favourite is the term used to describe a horse that is the clear favourite in the betting market for a particular race, but doesn’t have the form to merit such a position. False favourites can be dangerous for those who participate in horse betting online, but they can also throw up some good opportunities if you know where to look for them. Let’s look at both of these aspects of false favourites so that they help rather than hinder you…

First, the potential downside: anyone who bets on favourites without giving due consideration to their previous form will lose money on a false favourite sooner or later. If you blindly bet on every favourite going, you will eventually put your money on a horse that hasn’t raced for six months or more and is only the favourite because it has been hyped up as ‘something really special’ by the trainer, jockey or racing media. The bookmakers, keen to avoid giving away money whenever possible, will automatically trim a few points off such horses ‘just to be on the safe side’ and this could well make the runner favourite.

Spotting false favourites isn’t particularly difficult. Typically they have had a long break since their last race and the odds available about them will be far lower than you would expect based on form alone. There may or may not be hype about how the horse is set to win a massive race in the future, making the current race ‘a walk in the park’ by comparison. The horse may or may not have previous winning form, but if the horse has had a long break such form can’t be relied upon for betting purposes.

If you identify a horse that you think is a false favourite, your immediate move should be to refrain from betting on that favourite. As a general rule of thumb you would do well to avoid betting on any horse that hasn’t had a run for more than 30 days, and if you adhere to that rule you will automatically avoid betting on the majority of false favourites. That said, continue to identify false favourites because you may still be able to profit from the race.

The way to make money from some races that have a false favourite installed is to look at the form of the second favourite and third favourite and see if it might be worth betting on either or those each way. The presence of the false favourite means that the odds offered for other horses in the race are likely to be more generous than they should be, so you will often be able to bet on a second or third favourite each way (or for a place only with a betting exchange like Betfair) with a high degree of confidence.

Even better, if the suspected false favourite really is false, the second or third favourite could actually win the race at exaggerated odds, giving you a very nice profit without too much hassle.

You won’t find a false favourite every day of the week by any means, and not all false favourite races give the second or third favourites a particularly good chance of winning, but if you look out for the opportunities as described previously, you could make some great horse betting online profits in a surprisingly easy manner.